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Chattard ...

Recently, Poker Tracker 3 developers have incorporated a new statistic in their software ...
This is the curve "Money Won Expected" (or curve EV) that allows for a saw of what "should have won" in situations where they participated in rugs. Clearly, when one makes a move to carpet before the river, will negatively impact the outcome of stroke not the curve. It makes a certain percentage of the coup, according to the percentage chance of winning instantly. For example, if I go in preflop with AA against KK HU in a pot to $ 100. EV curve will increase by about $ 30 ($ 80 minus $ 50 invested in the pot) while my actual gain curve will increase by $ 50 when I win and plunge to $ 50 when I made suckout.

short, this curve can (sometimes) to put things into perspective when going through a bad patch. It also lets you know if it was rather dark, or rather in situations chattard played on carpet ... And what a surprise to see how much I chatted on carpets situations.
Indeed, as 99% of poker players, I was persuaded to be pursued by bad luck often unhealthy ... I thought, at best, the two curves would merge ... But I never imagined that my real earnings were also far from "EV gains. This demonstrates that the vision we have of our own "luck" in the short and medium term is completely distorted.

The difference is still very significant ... This chart shows the sessions played on NL50 and NL100 HU. The vast majority of hands being played on NL50, the $ 1,800 difference between the two curves still represent 36 wineries. This represents almost 30% of my earnings.
The funniest is that I was near broke me twice ... Looking at the curve value EV at that point, one can almost conclude that I should have broke (but not sure because I did cash-out that I would not have done so my bankroll was lower).

But if this curve can figure the factor "pussy" in very specific situations where carpets fly before the river, it is only a fraction of the random behavior of poker. Indeed, we can not quantify the bad setups, prints returning or not returning when is not no carpet, etc. ... If you ask me, I will tell you that I take a lot of bad setups, better than I have so many good setups that bad, at best I get my prints as much as the average ... But in the absence of statistical figures, it is impossible to really know. And as I said, my vision of my own luck is inevitably distorted ...

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Uriage ...

A short article for an update on the casino poker Uriage. The multiple sessions I've done it a little more than a year prompted me to open this blog. What about today?

Today, the desire to go play in Uriage is becoming increasingly rare. I stopped up there regularly on November 23. Since I did 3 sessions during the holidays with a session to € -1,104 Jan. 1. I then did a session to -600 € on March 6. Finally, I did a session at € 38 last Saturday (March 21). And to be honest, I did these sessions to get used to only Full Ring casino before heading out to Las Vegas next month. The

January 1 was a clear day "without". Bad set-ups, small bad beats, errors on my part, etc. ... I decided to persist despite the first two cellars lost because the table was too beautiful (lots of money, big pots, lower level than usual ...). So I lost a minimum wage in one night and I still had trouble cashing it. I was not so directly affected (I have never anxious or anything) but I completely lost the urge to cut back the casino. However, the change in short-term results should not influence my decisions ...
But I am a human being and motivation escapes me for a while ... While I thought I could turn back playing because I still have an edge on most players but without motivation, the fact of returning to play for me to do violence ... I had force. And I really did not want poker to become a chore, a job I have to do even if I do not want ... Poker should remain a hobby that I practice primarily to please me.

But from the perspective of my trip to Las Vegas, I am still determined to force my hand a little bit to reconnect with a full-ring game casino. Not playing almost exclusively on the net in HU, I was afraid to find myself in Vegas on tables that I can not control ...
That's why I got in Uriage Friday, March 6. I sit on a table by promising to take a serious poker. There were two great players at this table and one of them had the better of me. He attacked all flops pots I had raised pre-flop. It took me a sizeable pots twice before I cracked the third time. I decided to raise (carpet) with his new attack gutshot + two over-cards for I did not believe at all. But he caught me with two well pairs. Turn and river did not save me, I lose two wineries in 2:30 game and I decided to go home.

Also in the same vein (get used to the game in a casino), I decided to go to Uriage this Saturday, March 21. I wonder about "300" (2-4 blinds, mini wine cellar to 300) and begins to play. Success will there throughout the session by returning including two color prints in pots quite significant. Unfortunately, I lose the benefit in different moves. Yet the moves that I'm sure I selected but I broke my teeth every time.
For example, when we migrated to a table to "100" (2-4 blinds, mini wine cellar to 300) in the late evening, I raise Hi Jack in a very passive table. I am paid to the button by a pretty good player but has a very wide range to return the blows. It is capable of making big laydown. A player in the blinds joins us and the flop comes . The first player to check, I put a little more than half the pot, the call button, the other fold. Turn: . I check, check it after reflection. I think he has a lady. River: . A good card to turn my hand to bluff because I think a player without problem FolderA a lady (even AQ). I put in 140 € 72 € just to say "i want you to call me" and he begins to think for a moment before paying with . Damage.
Comments are welcome of course (my preflop raise is also questionable with such a player who has position on me).
short, I ended the session marginally positive but a session largely Winning would not refuse to regain some confidence ...

This small break in my sessions casino cash game allowed me to think a little. In speaking with other players, I came to wonder if I could still have a positive expected gain casino Uriage. First, we must know that the rake taken by the French casinos has no equal on the net or in Las Vegas ... Rake is set at 4% not capped. The level required to beat these tables is greater than what we may need to be a winner on the net or in the casinos of Las Vegas (10% rake capped at $ 4). Add to this the fact that the level players to increase significantly over the last 6 months, I wondered if I could still hope to make money on the tables there. The answer is far from clear ...
But I think having the level necessary to be a winner, but the margin is lower than before. The variance is then stronger .... In short, it will not be easy ...

Otherwise, I'm off to Las Vegas in 3 weeks. We are 8 to leave and we will be blogging about our adventures tumultuous ... :

http://lasvegasgratiano.blogspot.com/

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Getting repaid his train ticket. Back

Few posts Recently on this blog. My pokeristique news is rather quiet, so quiet that I have not even posted the traditional monthly balance for the month of February. A month that ended with a slight loss.
But forgive me, here's a little scheme: how to get a train ticket refund Grenoble-Paris A / R.

In Tuesday, February 10, I am forced to ask for an RTT go to Paris for some paperwork. Being very laying, I was given a wide slot for any settlement. Party at 5:21 in the morning in the capital of the Alps, I should take off from Paris at 5:46 p.m.. But it is until about noon, I finished what I had to do and I find myself Gare de Lyon with more than 5 hours to kill.

Never mind, I rush towards cyber-cafe nearest you and starts a package of 5 hours for 15 €. PokerStars I install on the computer and I begin a long session of Head's-Up 2-tabling (or even 3-tabling at times) to finish on a modest gain of $ 141 after 5am.
This corresponds to a ratio more in line with what I usually does (7.45BB/100h) but I had rather a result of swings for a short session as I have been negative 6 wineries ($ 300) in mid-session before climbing the hill. I particularly made a swing of -9 cellars 500 hands before moving on, just after a nice 10 cellars, still on 500 hands. In short, the variance HU, you probably start to be used if you regularly read this blog ...

If I think the converter dollar / euro yahoo, my gain of $ 141 is about 111 €. The train ticket round trip cost me € 103, 2 metro tickets: 3.20 €, bread, chocolate and coca in the train: 4.80 €. All this for a total of 111 €. So I managed to get a refund it all.
Unfortunately, I would have had a little more time and / or chance to reach me to cover the cost of cyber cafe 5h (15 €) and the coca frankly icky to 5 € I took in a coffee place of harmony only because I wanted to use the toilet ... Ah ... If I had not taken the 2-outer ... Sick life ...

And finally, here is the graph of the day (and yes, I get the hand histories on a USB key to import them into my base AP):